You don’t need to be a Chinese zodiac expert to see the significance of this year ahead. If 2020 was a lost bar fight than 2021 is the year the fallen get up and charge back at the attacker. This is year we all pick ourselves up out of the struggle and we make something of our renewed selves. We as a society hit a massive inflection point toward the end of 2020 with the vaccine, approval and rollout of the mRNA approach. I, for one, feel incredibly useless and incompetent for not contributing to the cause beyond staying home (most of the time) but I am proud of my brethren scientists and humanity at large! Here are my 2021 predictions on a smattering of things:
1) 80% revert back to their old ways, 20% embrace the change. Whether we’re talking people or companies, we will see those people that lean into the change and those that quickly jump back to their old ways. 80% of companies will ask their employees to come back to the office full time once the vaccine hits the critical herd immunity point (75% of population vaccinated). 20% of the companies will embrace this change and set up either a) remote first with optional office time b) hub and spoke model to remove singular office location or c) hybrid model with 3 days in office, 2 days out.
2) We will see an ever increasing raging debate over gene sequence editing stimulated by the introduction of the widespread mRNA vaccines for COVID-19. We will see an uptick in biotech funding to work on genetic sequencing cures for genetic abnormalities like early onset alzheimers predisposition, cancer susceptibility genes, and more.
3) We will see massive medical and nursing school loan forgiveness as a “Thank you” for the heroes of this pandemic - the doctors and nurses.
4) We will see a string of savvy acquisitions of large entertainment companies by the big technology names. Movie theaters, ticket companies, live entertainment businesses will all find homes with the cash rich conglomerates of the 2010s. Your movie going experience, your live concert even and the way you attend entertainment will be even better than ever before by end of 2021! Coachella 2022 tickets will be the most coveted tickets in town.
5) We will see huge statements and funding bills proposed for mobility infrastructure upgrades to America’s roads, tracks and tunnels but very little will actually be approved. We will see new private enterprises pop up on the scale of hyperloop and boring company to try to solve the problem from the private sector. There will be some impressive projects kicked off this year in forward thinking cities (i.e. tunneling under Congress street in Austin or building more tunnels in LA.
6) We will see a crypto crash in 2021. With deeper speculation as the sole understanding of crypto assets, we will see yet again another trough of disillusionment. The long term viability for blockchain based currency is still very much intact but the short term speculation will hit a breaking point this year with another hack and privacy breach that will send people scrambling for fiat.
7) We will see a rush back to city living. With the suburban flight stealing the headlines of 2020, vibrancy and entertainment will steal the show in the back half of ‘21. We will see low and mid-level condo prices start to rise dramatically, apartment occupancy and rate will tick up significantly in major metropolitan areas. Everyone misses their $5.50/cup of lama milk infused chai latte and wants to brunch again!
8) We will see actual regulation on the big technology companies to curb predatory business practices and will move to break up certain businesses. We will see continued speculation of massive high growth tech companies that push a few closer to the trillion dollar market cap club in the first half of ‘21. By end of ‘21 we will see a rebalancing of capital flowing back into defense, hospitality, travel equities.
9) We will see a removal of foreign trade tariffs, reversing years of a gated approach to international trade as pricing pressure on goods and services becomes too much on businesses for purchasing of inputs.
10) Glamping still rues the day for vacation and travel as people discover the benefit of fresh air over luxury. Glamping set ups paired with live events will be become a huge business by end of 2021. The new burning man of sorts will pop up in Wyoming and everyone will be talking about it.
What do I know but I at least would like to memorialize it so I can show how WRONG I am at the end of the year.