2025 - The Year of the Snake
Every year I try to make predictions that are contrary to popular belief or ones that I have such conviction in that are consensus views that it would be silly to predict against them. It’s already 11 days into the year and I could never had predicted the tragedies endured from the New Orleans terror attack nor the Los Angeles fires that have (and continue) to ravage one of the most beautiful parts of our country. My heart goes out to the victims of the attacks and fires. I also missed the “obvious” coup rhetoric of Greenland by Trump - silly me! In any event, there’s still 97% of the year left to predict so I’m going to do my annual ‘in no particular order’ predictions.
The year of Natural Gas. In a cyclical market, energy and defense tend to rise together as hedges against boom times. With all the discussion around renewable energy and the overly ambitious hot topic of small format nuclear, I think the big winners of the year will be the natural gas providers and natural gas refineries that have near-term capacity. As demand for electricity shows no sign of slowing down, Natural Gas remains the most plentiful and most accessible input for electricity production. Large conglomerates like Exxon, Conoco Phillips and EQT hold the largest market share but I think some of the smaller names in the space will have breakout years as they continue to pile their free cash flow into operational improvements and new capital projects. Public companies like Dorchester, Granite Ridge, Tellurian and Ring Energy will be the big winners of the year as they grow their footprints and each company will see a market cap increase of over 25% this year.
PERMITTING REFORM will be the new hot topic of 2025. With Trump taking office and the pledge DOGE efforts by Elon and Vivek, I think we’ll see a drastic permitting reform campaign that swings too far to the right in terms of slashing red tape. In theory it’s a beautiful concept but in practice, it can lead to fast and loose. The beginning of the year will see optimism in permitting reform and by the end of the year I think we’ll see some sprouts of the backfiring of a large corporate group that went too fast and loose. I think the permitting reform discussion that gets called into question first will be safety around housing construction (EPA regulates here) and NHTSA (vehicle safety).
Reversal of the GLP-1 trend and the rhetoric around health and wellness comes from routine, not from a needle in the thigh. I think studies will emerge and start to spread that show the downsides of GLP-1’s for weight loss. Whether its cancerous growth or heart ramifications, I think the rhetoric on the value of GLP-1 for weight loss will start to shift and we’ll see calls for warning labels like we see on other high risk substances.
Utah will be the darling of the migratory pattern discussions and Portland will be a big comeback story of the year. This is the year that the country discovers that Utah might be the new California - a perfect combination of mountains, summers and centrality. Portland on the other hand becomes a story of reversal to the mean. PDX has a fresh airport redesign and the notion 'what goes down must come back up’ will be Portland’s revival story. Politically it’s been a place of radical left ideas (such as lax drug reform) but with the tides changing around crime and the frustration of lack of growth, I think local politicians and the public spotlight will shine bright on Oregon as a place where economic growth and law and order are re-prioritized over social liberties.
The drink of the year will be water. I think by the end of 2025 we will hear about an IPO that’s coming - Liquid Death - which will redefine the branding landscape and marketing world. Liquid Death is already a crash course in marketing and brand awareness but with an IPO, it will be find its way onto the main stage discussion.
First $1B sports players contract. After Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto each received contracts valued at north of $700mm in 2024, I think we will see our first $1B long term sports contract in the works but perhaps not officially executed. My prediction is that it will be Kylian Mbappe will come out with the indication that he plans to accept a transfer and accept Saudi Arabia’s offer that will be north of $1B. I know nothing about how soccer contracts work so this could be dead wrong and potentially impossible due to contractual terms. Regardless, it’s staying in my predictions!
Singapore’s Surplus Becomes a Geopolitical Model to Emulate. With the discussions so heavily focused on reducing our $34T deficit in the US and the European deficit’s raging as well, I think we’ll see a spotlight shown on Singapore. A financial capital that has grown to become a rather Switzerland-like safe-haven, I think Singapore’s fiscal responsibility will be highlighted in 2025 and will start to brand itself as such. I don’t know what will be the marker of success of this prediction but I’ll go ahead and say that Singapore’s Prime Minister, Lawrence Wong, will speak at Davos about the fiscal responsibility of its country and that will garner a lot of press and learnings for American economists.
Javier Milei will star in Saturday Night Live in 2025. As an off-the-beaten and somewhat irrelevant prediction, I think Javier Milei will do an SNL cameo and perhaps have his first ever opening monologue. As an added cherry on top…I think we will see a Mike Meyers, Javier Milei tandem cameo and an Austin Powers spoof featuring Javier Milei as Austin Powers and Mike Meyers as Doctor Evil.
Tesla will acquire Uber in 2025. With the announcement of a robotaxi fleet future, I think Tesla will see Uber as the built-in user base and infrastructure for ride share while Tesla supplies the cars and robotics. Uber will also be a bridge solution until a fully autonomous robo-fleet for moving people around. Tesla typically is not acquisitive but I think we’ll see a Dara and Elon love affair that will sprout up in the summer of this year. Expect an AI generated image of the two of them sharing a ‘spritz’ in the south of france together.
NVIDIA will be the worlds most valuable company by the end of 2025. The company that supplies the AI infrastructure for the world will invariably become the most valuable company in the world and oust Apple as the most valuable business. My prediction is that NVIDIA ends the year with a total market cap north of $5T.
With that, let’s hope and pray that the rest of 2025 is better than the first week and a half thus far. We could all use a little emotional break. Let’s pray for the victims of the attacks and wildfires and the swift recovery and rebuilding efforts of Los Angeles.
Good luck to us all in 2025!