The Great (Temporary) Migration
According to the New York times article HERE this morning, there’s been a great migration away from the wealthy zip codes of Manhattan and into other parts of the country. The flight paths show mostly desirable second home locations and other east coast enclaves known for quality of life. The data tracked in the study comes from mail forwarding which to my estimation grossly under-estimates how many people actually are taking a hiatus from their small boxes of an apartment in Manhattan and fleeing to open space, full of sea breezes and mountain air. It’s likely there are a lot of overflowing mailboxes in Manhattan right now…
This has me thinking a lot about “Majority” thinking. In my echo chamber, I’m hearing a lot about remote work and the ability to work anywhere for many white-collar jobs. Surely, the flight of high paying white-collar jobs to more remote parts of the country would have a huge downstream effect on economic patterns and outcomes. Who from a service perspective would follow that inflow of population to more rural towns? Would there be a flight of new house keepers? Would there be an augmented shipping service to offer faster deliveries to more remote areas and zip codes? There are so many dominos that must follow a flight out of big cities. I think its in vogue for the moment to say that might happen but I’m skeptical of the long-term decision to flee density and urbanization for the likes of space, greenery and scenery. I’m still bullish on cities — especially our most resilient ones.
More likely, I think you will have temporary flight (which we’re seeing today) but the feeling of longing and disconnectedness will soon set in. There is only so much joy for the human psyche in staying far away from others and mountain biking in the afternoon. For many, the joy of life comes from the stitched fabric of urbanization. That feeling that you’re in the flow of information and social happenings.
As I write this from Dallas, Texas at my in-laws place, a box much more sizable than my apartment in Los Angeles, I know this isn’t permanent. I know I will soon be back in Los Angeles and dining at restaurants, mixing with larger crowds, sipping coffee at my favorite roadside coffee shop and seeing my colleagues in the office — more excited than ever to catch up on their lives.
My belief is that we will come back. We will all rush back to the cities we love the most and the cities we’ve helped create. That’s our urban core, at it’s core.